Predicting success is incredibly difficult. Think about the NFL. The top draft picks often don’t turn into the stars of the league. How is it possible that a majority of those who follow football and are considered “smart” choose a group of players they believe will be stars and get it almost dead wrong. How do these experts miss it on Dak Prescott, Tom Brady or even Aaron Rodgers? Were there really better players?
This dilemma happens in business too.